Stanley Cup Final Preview TLPDS

 2026 Vegas vs Carolina Stanley Cup Final Series Notes


Part 1: What The Numbers/Odds Say

  • Carolina is the favorite to win cup at -155 best series prop is Carolina to win in 7 at +425

  • Oddsmakers think Carolina is the favorite and the public agrees, Carolina in 7 shows the consensus is it won’t be an easy task for Carolina

  • From a non-hockey perspective and figuring the odds are made in Vegas them being the underdog gives a better payout if they win; however Carolina has basically been the one of the favorites to win over the last few years, so it makes sense they would be the favorite

  • Based on actual NHL stats Carolina has a + 1.6 avg goal differential Vegas has a + 1.3; both goalies are under 2.5 GAA so far so i’d expect some low scoring games 

Part 2: History in playoffs/cup final

  • Historically both teams have been frontrunners in the playoffs 

  • Vegas never trailed in a series during their 2023 win, didn’t trail until losing 4 straight in the 2018 final, their only two comeback series wins came in 2021 against Colorado (came back from 0-2 to win 4-2) and this year against Utah (came back from 1-2 to win 4-2)

  • Vegas cup final record is a clean 5-5 lost 4-1 to WAS in 2018 and beat FLA 4-1 in 2023

  • Vegas outscored FLA 26-11 in the 23 final including a 7-2 game 2 win and a 9-3 closeout win in game 5

  • Carolina has dominated in most of its playoff series winning majority of them in 4 or 5 games however they have been swept twice in the conference finals

  • Similar to Vegas in 2002 they lost the cup final in 5 games to DET after winning game 1 and in 2006 made an impressive cup run winning the final in 7 against EDM

  • In the last 10 seasons Carolina has 13 series wins but this is their first final, Vegas has 15 series wins and is going into their 3rd final

  • Vegas has more cup final experience on their roster with 13 players having played in at least 1 cup final and 7 that have played in 2 cup finals

  • Carolina has 3 players with at least 1 and 2 with 2 one of them being Will Carrier who was with Vegas in 18 and 23

  • Vegas total player stats in the cup final i’ll just put Will Karlssons stats here 10 gp 2 g 3 a 5 pts

  • Carolina stats 22 gp 1 g 1 a 2pts pretty slim numbers

  • Both teams have taken down recent champions; Vegas beat Colorado who won the Finals in 2022, Carolina beat Washington last year who won in 2018

  • Carolina has been eliminated by the eventual eastern Conference or Cup champion in 4 of their last 7 playoff runs; Vegas has the same exact numbers in the west

  • Carolina missed the playoffs in 2018 which was VGKs first year as a team but has made it every year since, Vegas has made it every year except 2022

  • Carolina made the playoffs for the first time in 10 years in 2019, these two have been on a very similar timeline the last 8 years, Carolina came out of a successful rebuild only one year after Vegas was gifted a playoff ready team by the NHL expansion protocol 

Part 3: Matching up the rosters

Forwards: Vegas > Carolina

  • This is a really tough decision to make on who has the better forwards

  • Vegas has the star power with guys like Eichel and Marner but the depth of Carolina makes up for that

  • By keeping Eichel and Marner on two different lines Carolina is going to really have to be smart with their matchups

  • Carolina can easily defend all 4 lines on Vegas and handle them physically

  • Why the advantage goes to Vegas is in the goals department, Dorofeyev has 10 goals playing first line with Eichel, Howden also has 10 Gs on line 2 with Marner, those goals have them tied at the top of playoff scoring

  • Stankoven has 9 goals for Carolina good for second behind those 2 but Marner is right behind him in 3rd with 7

  • In a tight defensive cup finals like this series is going to be having natural goal scoring star power like that is the advantage you need to win 

  • Carolina does have a really good forward group they are just too defensive minded and don’t have those elite weapons 

Head to head rolling 4 lines plus PP/PK matchups

Line 1 Vegas, Line 2 Vegas, Line 3 Tie, Line 4 Vegas, PP Vegas, PK Tie

Defense: Carolina>Vegas

  • As much as I like the top 4 for Vegas the difference here is the 3rd pair for Vegas they have been pretty solid but you match them with any pair on Carolina and Carolina is better

  • The top 4 for Vegas Mcnabb Theodore Hanifin Andersson have been as solid as you can ask defenseman to be in the playoffs; they are hitting, blocking shots, and getting involved offensively

  • Theodore has been a solid threat offensively for Vegas but Ghost and Miller have both been great for Carolina

  • That's where the advantage comes for Carolina every pair they have poses a legit threat whether its the lockdown defense of Slavin and Chatfield, the two-way play of Miller and Walker, or the offensive ability of Ghost and Nikishin

  • The Canes really need Ghost and Walker to have a big series and with the size of Vegas they need to handle themselves physically especially in their own end

  • Both sides can really shut things down in their own end Carolina just has more offensive skill and better overall depth than Vegas does

Head to head matchups 3 pairs plus PP/PK

Pair 1 Tie, Pair 2 Tie, Pair 3 Carolina, PP Carolina, PK Carolina

Goalies: Tie

  • Carter Hart playoff career stats 30 gp 21 W 2 so 2.23 gaa .925 sv% 27 yo

  • This year playoffs 16 gp 12 W 0 so 2.22 gaa .924 sv%

  • Freddie Andersen 98 gp 58 W 8 so 2.26 gaa .915 sv % 36 yo

  • This year playoffs 13 gp 12 W 3 so 1.41 gaa .931 sv%

  • Although Freddie is having a historic run, when you consider the amount of shots he's faced and how good Carolina is defensively id say him and carter have played pretty equally so far

  • Carter seems to be more athletic and technically sound than Freddie is but Andersen has the playoff experience and goalie IQ to makeup for that

  • There is also no denying the Canes defense first style is beneficial to the goalie

  • Hart has faced 476 shots compared to 289 for Freddie so far this playoff

  • The numbers based on this playoff alone seems like the Canes have the better goalie but when you consider some of the performances Hart has had compared to Freddie it comes to a draw

Part 4: Final Thoughts

  • Expect this to be a very close series especially early on

  • Games 1-3 are probably going to be low scoring especially when you consider the goaltending and defensive ability of these teams

  • Later in the series I expect more goals and this where I see Vegas having the advantage

  • If you look at how VGK played in 2023 they were very focused on attacking the entire game similar to how they have been playing this year

  • They play high effort hockey the entire game take advantage of their power plays and don’t let mistakes bother them

  • Carolina plays the same high effort level game but they don’t have the offensive power to score when they need to like Vegas does

  • The Hurricanes are very dependent on their system to score goals mainly by forcing other teams into coverage mistakes with their passing and cycle ability

  • Vegas has elite snipers and playmakers that can change a game with one good shot or a great pass and they also have the grit to score greasy goals in front of the net

  • I think by game 3 or 4 once Vegas gets used to defending Carolina in the offensive zone and figures out their weaknesses on defense they take control of the series

  • I wouldn’t be surprised if they win a few games by a blowout like they did against Florida in 2023

  • I do not buy the Carolina in 6 or 7 hype at all if Carolina is going to win they are going to have to do it quickly in 4 or 5 games 

  • Barring no major injuries on both sides I think the deeper this series gets the better it is for Vegas and the worse it gets for Carolina

  • That being said I have Vegas beating Carolina in 6 on home ice 

  • Eichel will lead the series with the most points and Dorofeyev with the most goals however due to the low scoring games early on Carter gets the Conn Smythe

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